Jan Choinski vs Matej Dodig Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Second Serve Performance: In the past six months, Choinski's second serve success rate is 46.2%, just ahead of Dodig's 44.86%. Could this slight edge be crucial in predicting the match outcome? It suggests a potential advantage for Choinski.
• Return Game Stats: Dodig leads in recent return performance, winning 46.69% of opponents' second serve points compared to Choinski's 43.17%. On first serve returns, Dodig again outperforms with 29.02% against Choinski's 26.49%. This indicates Dodig may have the upper hand in return games.
• Under Pressure: Choinski excels slightly under pressure, saving 57.35% of break points compared to Dodig's 55.19%. Might this marginal difference sway the momentum during crucial match moments?
• Overall Performance: Over the last year, Choinski has a better win rate of 55.56%, compared to Dodig's 50.82%. This reflects better overall consistency for Choinski.
• Surface Strengths: Choinski thrives on clay with a career win rate of 62%. Conversely, Dodig's best results are on hard courts, winning 68% of the time. Surface choice could significantly influence match dynamics.
• Player Level Experience: In Challenger and ITF tournaments over the last year, Choinski has a win rate of 57.14%, edging out Dodig at 49.02%. Will Choinski’s slightly higher experience propel him to victory?
• Opponent Quality: Dodig has faced slightly more challenging opponents on average, with their rank being 242.33 versus Choinski's 262.89. Does Dodig's exposure to tougher competition better prepare him?
• Deciding Sets: When matches go the distance, Choinski has a deciding set win rate of 64%, significantly outperforming Dodig's rate of 45%. Could Choinski handle high-pressure scenarios better?
• Break Point Conversion: Conversion rates are close, with Choinski at 34.13% and Dodig at 33.17%. Precision in break points might tip the scales slightly in Choinski’s favor during crucial stages.

Editorial Prediction (July 16, 2025, UTC):

Both players possess strengths that can influence the match outcome. Choinski demonstrates a stronger second serve performance, slightly more success under pressure, and a superior overall win rate over the past year. These elements enhance his likelihood of capitalizing on key moments.

While Dodig excels in return games and has consistently faced tougher competition, Choinski’s advantage in match-closing situations, such as the deciding set performance, could prove decisive.

The surface of the match may also play an influential role. Choinski’s dominance on clay is worth noting, even if it is not the current surface.

Given the analyzed statistics, Choinski is projected as the more likely winner in this upcoming tennis match. His consistency and poise under pressure provide him a slight but significant edge.